Comment by BVAA CEO Rob Bartlett

BVAA CEO Rob Bartlett

The quote continues ‘…just focus on what’s important. Capture the good times, develop from the negatives, and if things don’t turn out… take another shot.’

Ok it’s terribly corny. Real wisdom, I find, comes from the experienced and well informed, and if that person also happens to be a highly respected Professor of Global Economy, so much the better.

So it was that in February, the great and the good of the BVAA assembled online to be addressed by Prof Joe Nellis of Cranfield School of Management. While it’s always good to see and hear from Joe, there were some thought-provoking, some might say alarming, pointers in his presentation.

There is some ‘good’ news when one considers the £billions invested by the UK Govt., the continued long-term fall in unemployment that facilitated, and the very successful rollout of covid vaccines and related drugs. 

On the downside there’s the colossal public sector debt (£2.34t at the last count), the forecast for declining growth in western economies over the near future (and possibly long-term), plus a rise in the influence of emerging countries and Asia, and the potential for spiralling inflation. 

It should make us all stop and pause.  Compound that with still-emerging Brexit spinouts, and the fact that the average house in Britain now costs 8.5 times the average salary, and it doesn’t look good for our children who not only won’t in all likelihood own their own home, but also will be the ones paying off our debt long after we’re all gone.

At first glance, it’s hard to see where we can develop from those negatives isn’t it?

Well, there’s some history to lend succour here. We’ve recovered from a global epidemic before – one that killed many more millions a century ago. We also incurred humongous debts in both world wars, paying off the last loan instalment for the second one as recently as this century.  I do remember being astonished when this was a news item a few years ago; something I was completely unaware of, and not noticeably affected by.

There’s further turbulence coming too as a result of the inflation, the scarcity of materials and their constituents, the demand from markets who are prepared (and able, thanks to their bursting trade balances) to pay the higher prices and compound those scarcity issues for others, and the globally significant problem of the energy crisis. 

That one at least we can do something about. On our doorstep we have significant reserves of oil and gas. Gas, in particular, is recognised (at long last) as a key facilitator in the transition to cleaner energy. Realisation is dawning that you cannot simply flick a switch from one globally-utilised energy source to another.

The potential for hydrogen is huge, and exciting, but so are the challenges (as we will hear at the BVAA Conference on 18th May).  It’s not yet available in anywhere near sufficient quantity, nor is product proven and available at scale to facilitate its safe use.  We don’t have any infrastructure yet (just think of the charging issues we still have with electric vehicles long after their introduction). 

The cost involved to create such infrastructure and generate hydrogen means – currently – few end-use applications can make a fiscal case for its use.  And where will the colossal investment needed come from?  That’s right, largely the existing energy companies.  Add in all the economic challenges I mentioned above in terms of restrictions on investment, and the mass application of hydrogen looks even further away, not nearer to hand.

Someone needs to take ‘another shot’ at the planning of all this, preferably with some engineers involved this time.

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