Oxford Economics - World GDP: Forecast Revisions

The world economy remains on track to grow at a steady pace through H2 this year and into 2025. While growth will be unexceptional, we think concerns that a US recession could push the world economy on to a weaker growth trajectory are misplaced. Our world GDP growth forecasts are 2.6% in 2024 and 2.8% in 2025.

Overall, the likely soft performance of world GDP growth in Q2 was likely to have been payback for Q1's strength. In H2, we believe global growth will pick up gradually. Given this and ongoing signs that underlying inflation pressures are moderating, we expect central banks in key advanced economies to slowly lower rates from here. We continue to expect the Fed will begin its cautious rate cutting cycle in September as will the ECB. We expect the Bank of England to cut rates by 25bps in August and a further 25bps in November.

Industrial data continues to show gradually increasing momentum, albeit not without hiccups. The global manufacturing PMI for May gave reason for cheer - the reading rose to a 22-month high – bit dropped back in June, dragged lower by weaker European activity.

This is unsurprising: Europe was by far the weakest region in terms of industrial growth in 2023 and has a deep hole to climb out of. Nonetheless, we believe that production has bottomed out. The return of demand will be slow as the component forces, namely rising consumer real incomes and spending, an end to destocking, recovering international demand, the falling impacts of interest rate increases, and normalising energy prices, will work on different time horizons and take time to build momentum. 

Global Valve & Actuator Market Outlook

The Global Valve and Actuator Market Outlook 2023 is the seventh annual market report prepared by Oxford Economics, one of the world’s foremost independent global economic forecasting firms. The report is commissioned by the British Valve and Actuator Association (BVAA).

Each October, the report is published with updated and revised data sets. BVAA members can use the online Power BI data tool, a business analytics platform developed by Microsoft. It permits easy visualisation of the data, as well as the export of data and charts to other applications.

If you are a BVAA member, you can access the 2023 report and Power BI data tool, via the Member Area of our website here: https://www.bvaa.org.uk/login-here.asp

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