Oxford Economics - Global Valve & Actuator Market Outlook 2024

The Global Valve and Actuator Market Outlook 2024 is the eighth annual market report prepared by Oxford Economics, one of the world’s foremost independent global economic forecasting firms. The report is commissioned by the British Valve and Actuator Association.

The 2024 report was published in October with updated and revised data sets. BVAA members have exclusive access to the 2024 report via the Member Area of our website, and can use the online Power BI data tool, a business analytics platform developed by Microsoft. It permits easy visualisation of the data, as well as the export of data and charts to other applications. 

Here is the latest update from Oxford Economics:

We have upgraded our outlook for global valves consumption this year and next and now expect valves consumption to rise by 3.6% in 2024, to a market size of US$88.1bn followed by growth of around 4% in 2025.

This forecast is partly driven by the fact that our 2022 estimates were weaker than we had anticipated, so there is an element of catch-up in these growth rates. But the world economy has also performed better than we had expected which has meant that our projections for global economic growth have also been revised higher.

We now expect that the global economy will grow by 2.8% in 2025 after registering growth of 2.7% this year. Growth will be supported by lower credit costs and a pickup in consumer activity.

At a country level, the US, in particular, has surprised to the upside over the past year, notwithstanding more recent concerns about prospects for a recession. The economy is starting to slow but evidence remains consistent with a soft landing. The Chinese economy is also slowing, prompting Beijing to announce a bolder-than-expected round of policy support. We remain sceptical that such measures will do much to resolve the more fundamental structural problems facing the real economy.

The industrial sector has disappointed over the past year. Industrial activity has been lacklustre across the world, but especially in the developed economies. The weakness early in 2024 was expected, but the latest data are sending strong signals that our expectation of a nascent, if not strong, industrial recovery in the second half of 2024 proved too optimistic.

Global industrial output is forecast to grow by 2.1% in 2024. That pace of growth represents a notable upgrade from 2023’s low of 1.2%, which is a multi-decade low outside of major global recessions, but also a transition to the more robust growth of 3% we expect next year, which is more in line with global production coming back to firing on all cylinders. We are still seeing the impact of past rate hikes weigh strongly on growth in advanced economies, which should take until 2025 to turn around fully.

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